Nomograms predicting extra- and early intrahepatic recurrence after hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract Background Extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection are indicative of poor prognoses. We aimed to develop nomograms to predict extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence after hepatic resection. Methods The participants of this study were 1,206 patients who underwent initial and curative hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. Multivariate logistic regression analyses using the Akaike information criterion were used to construct nomograms to predict extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence (within 1 year of surgery) at the first recurrence sites after hepatic resection. Performance of each nomogram was evaluated by calibration plots with bootstrapping. Results Extrahepatic recurrence was identified in 95 patients (7.9%) and early intrahepatic recurrence in 296 patients (24.5%). Three predictive factors, α-fetoprotein >200 ng/mL, tumor size (3–5 cm or >5 cm vs ≤3 cm), and image-diagnosed venous invasion by computed tomography, were adopted in the final model of the extrahepatic recurrence nomogram with a concordance index of 0.75. Tumor size and 2 additional predictors (ie, multiple tumors and image-diagnosed portal invasion) were adopted in the final model of the early intrahepatic recurrence nomogram with a concordance index of 0.67. The calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions of extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence and the actual observations of extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence, respectively. Conclusion We have developed reliable nomograms to predict extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection. These are useful for the diagnostic prediction of extrahepatic recurrence and early intrahepatic recurrence and could guide the surgeon’s selection of treatment strategies for hepatocellular carcinoma patients.