The social dynamics of suburbanization: insights from a qualitative model

The authors contribute to the discussion on suburban developments by way of modeling the underlying social dynamics between suburban actors in two European suburban areas: the Wirral (Liverpool), UK and Leipzig, Germany. Data from questionnaires carried out in the two study areas are used to model social attraction and repulsion: that is, social segregation processes among socioeconomic groups. The model suggests that these social dynamics would, if other possible influences are ignored, lead to a situation of fluctuating residential in-migration and out-migration and to waves of suburbanization in the study regions. There are no persistent states: suburbanization would steadily continue until external—that is, not modeled—forces restrict movement, impact the spatial characteristics of the suburbs, or alter the social interactions among the actors. Suburban in-migration could only be reduced by strict planning regulations and/or other external forces which impact actor-class constellations and interdependencies, for example, by measures to restrict migration to more distant suburban locations and to provide preferential housing in the inner urban areas. The analysis further indicates that suburbs develop into independent residential areas, separate from the urban centers, as the primary source of migration to suburbs is no longer the urban centers; the vast majority of moves occur within suburbs or into suburbs from outside the region. Keywords: social interaction, segregation, (post-) suburbanization, sprawl, shrinking cities, qualitative modeling, Leipzig, Germany, the Wirral (Liverpool), UK