TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE IN OECD COUNTRIES

It is evident that the world energy problem of the 1980's and 1990's--really a petroleum shortage--will be above all a crisis for the transportation sector. Most vulnerable are private motor cars, trucks and airlines. If extreme fuel shortages develop it is likely that private automobiles would be forced to cut back on usage most of all. This possibility is discussed in some detail hereafter. The plan of the paper is, first, to develop a consistent set of historical data on demand for transport services, by mode, for OECD countries. Next, we develop consistent estimates of energy consumption and energy intensity, again by mode, making use of the IEA's energy balances statistics. Third, we infer a set of relationships between energy prices and economic growth rates, demand for transportation services and energy-intensities. Fourth, using these derived relationships we project fuel use for transportation purposes to 1990. Finally, we discuss some of the apparent implications for future transportation usage and future oil prices, in light of the apparent inelasticity of oil supply noted above. (Author)