Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

Abstract : This research presents and demonstrates a framework for assessing climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment.The approach, which we call decision-scaling, reveals the core sensitivity of DoD installations to climate change. It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems, including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and results remain unclouded by the many choices and trade-offs required in the processing of projections from general circulation models (GCMs, also known as global climate models) and their associated uncertainties. The engine of analysis is the climate stress test which is an algorithm designed to stress the target system using systematic and exhaustive exploration of possible climate changes. Climate projections, including simulations from the NARCCAP are then used to inform the level of concern associated with each risk after the risks are identified via the climate stress test.The decision framework was applied to four sectors: water supply, energy costs, training and fire management and evaluated through piloting at four installations. The results show clear answers regarding the climate risks at each installation in each of these sectors, in terms that are quantifiably comparable across sectors. The expectation is the framework and assessment products are appropriate for application to all DoD installations and represent the very best approach for evaluating climate risks.