Seismic Hazard Assessment in Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya Using IMS Network

Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and their vicinity bounded by 25–40°N and 65–85°E have been considered for future earthquake hazard. This is one of the most seismically active continent – continent collision-type active plate regions of the world where earthquakes of magnitude 8.6 have occurred during the past hundred years. Seventeen years earthquake data from June 13, 1999 to March 12, 2015 have been taken from International Monitoring System (IMS) Network setup by Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), Vienna Austria. Gumbel’s Type I extreme event statistics [1] has been applied to analyses those maximum magnitude data with a satisfactory degree of correlation (0.92). The result of analysis has enabled earthquake hazard that exist in the Hindukush-Pamir Himalayan belt to be quantified in terms of recurrence periods and probabilities of occurrence of earthquake of any given magnitude. The line of expected extremes (LEE) which is based on 17 years (1999-2015) of seismicity data of yearly extreme values of earthquakes for the region has been plotted. The medium to large size earthquakes which is expected to occur in this region has been predicted. Study indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 5.5. The most probable earthquakes that may occur in an interval of 50 years are estimated as 6.6.