Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: Comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific
2015
We compare two ecosystem model projections of 21st century climate change and fishing impacts in the
central North Pacific. Both a species-based and a size-based ecosystem modeling approach are examined.
While both models project a decline in biomass across all sizes in response to climate change and a
decline in large fish biomass in response to increased fishing mortality, the models vary significantly
in their handling of climate and fishing scenarios. For example, based on the same climate forcing the
species-based model projects a 15% decline in catch by the end of the century while the size-based model
projects a 30% decline. Disparities in the models’ output highlight the limitations of each approach by
showing the influence model structure can have on model output. The aspects of bottom-up change to
which each model is most sensitive appear linked to model structure, as does the propagation of inter-annual
variability through the food web and the relative impact of combined top-down and bottom-up
change. Incorporating integrated size- and species-based ecosystem modeling approaches into future
ensemble studies may help separate the influence of model structure from robust projections of ecosystem
change.
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