A component analysis of recent fertility decline in singapore.

The Singapore National Family Planning and Population Programme has very explicit demographic goals: to reach replacement reproduction by 1980 and to reach zero population growth by 2030 (Wan and Loh, 1975). To promote these goals, since 1968 the government of Singapore has passed a series of laws designed to discourage births above given birth orders: initially fourth births and later, third. These disincentive policies have included the granting of paid maternity leave for only the first three (and later the first two) births, an increased delivery charge in government hospitals for higher order births, and lower priority in admission to primary school for children of birth order four and above. In addition, abortion and sterilization laws have been liberalized, and many of the disincentives related to higher order births are waived if one of the parents becomes sterilized following the birth. Most national family planning programs, even those with demographic goals, have relied on voluntary acceptance of contraception. It has long been recognized, however, that voluntary family planning programs, even when highly successful, carry no guarantee that demographic goals, such as zero growth, will be reached (Davis, 1967). What may be needed are measures that go "beyond family planning" and attempt to influence the number of children couples choose to have (Berelson, 1969a). Singapore is an example of a country that has gone well beyond voluntary family planning to reach its demographic goals, and it is of interest to see how successful the social policies have been. To measure the success of Singapore's policies, we can compare trends in fertility, family planning acceptance, and incidence of sterilization and abortion for the periods approximately before, during, and after the enactment of the fertility disincentives and the liberalization of abortion and sterilization laws. If the disincentives have had an effect on fertility, one would expect to find a definite pattern of change to have occurred during this period: