Asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth in selected EU countries
2015
The paper explores the asymmetric relation between public debt and economic growth in 13
EU countries in the period 1993–2013. A panel data model uncovers a linear relation between debt-toGDP
decrease and GDP growth, while the relation between the debt-to-GDP increase and GDP
growth is defined by an inverted U-shaped curve (parabola) with the peak at a 64% debt-to-GDP ratio.
We identified two main patterns in relations between debt-to-GDP and GDP growth: (i.) hysteresis
loop – country data trace the closed circle defined within the debt interval [53%,113%] (Austria,
Finland, Denmark) and (ii.) debt trap – country debt-to-GDP ratio breaks the 113% level and
indebtedness increase followed by the GDP fall is tracing the diverging tail of parabola (debt trap in
Greece, Italy, Portugal)
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