기후변화에 따른 미래 극한호우사상이 소양강댐 유역의 유량 및 유사량에 미치는 영향

One objective of this study is to analyze changes in the future rainfall patterns in the Soyang-dam watershed according to the RCP 4.5 scenario of climate change. A second objective is to project peak flow and hourly sediment simulated for future extreme rainfall events using the SWAT model. For these, the accuracy of the SWAT hourly simulation for the large-scale watershed was evaluated in advance. The results of the model calibration showed that the simulated peak flow matched observation well within the acceptable average relative error. The results of our analysis of future rainfall pattern changes indicated that extreme storm events will become more severe and frequent as climate change progresses. We especially could see that large-scale extreme storm events may become more severe and more frequent during 2030-2040 and 2050-2060. In addition, as shown in the SWAT hourly simulation for future extreme storm events, flooding and turbid water could be even worse in the future than with the most devastating storm event in the past, as happened with the typhoon Ewiniar in 2006. Thus, countermeasures against future extreme storm events and turbid water are needed to cope with climate change.