Prognostic Indicators and Risk Factors for Increased Duration of Acute Diarrhoea and for Persistent Diarrhoea in Children

: To identify the prognostic indicators and risk factors for increased duration of acute diarrhoea and for occurrence of persistent diarrhoea (i.e. acute episodes lasting longer than 14 days) in children under three years, a systematic sample (3690) of patients attending a large treatment centre in Bangladesh was analysed using multiple regression, logistic regression and stratified (Mantel-Haenszel) analysis. Significant prognostic indicators or risk factors for increase in duration of acute diarrhoea, after adjusting for confounders, include bloody or mucoid diarrhoea, concomitant signs of chest infection, presence of vitamin A deficiency signs, decreased weight for age, routine use of contaminated surface water, lack of breastfeeding and increasing age; presence of rotavirus or enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli or Vibrio cholerae 01 in stool had negative association. In logistic regression and stratified analysis these factors, except for lack of breastfeeding and age, were also found to be risk factors or prognostic indicators of persistent diarrhoea. Policy implications of these findings for programmes to reduce morbidity and mortality from persistent diarrhoea include development of effective vaccines against dysentery-causing Shigella, programmes to prevent vitamin A deficiency, protein energy malnutrition and acute respiratory infections in children, and long-term programmes to provide clean water for all day-to-day needs.