Decoupling Representation and Regressor for Long-Tailed Information Cascade Prediction

Effectively predicting the size of information cascades is crucial for understanding the evolution of many social applications, such as influence maximization and fake news detection. Conventional methods face the challenge of data imbalance which, in turn, yields unsatisfactory prediction performance. To prevent the loss functions or metrics from being affected by extreme values and assure numerical stability, previous works reformulate the problem definitions or adopt other types of evaluation metrics. However, solving the regression prediction of information cascades from a long-tailed distribution perspective is under explored. In this paper, we propose a general decoupling prediction solution -- first extracting the representation, then fine-tuning the regressor, which combines the original prediction value and weighted bias generated by a sub-network (SUB) that we designed. Our experiments conducted on long-tailed benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly improves the prediction accuracy over state-of-the-art methods and mitigates the long-tailed cascade prediction problem.