Utilizing Participatory Scenario-Based Approaches to Design Proactive Responses to Climate Change in the Face of Uncertainties

Despite the recent upsurge in research, the complex and inter-related processes driving climate change continue to be characterized by significant uncertainty. One of the major issues for policy-makers is how to deal with this considerable uncertainty in ways that enable pro-active measures rather than complicate or discourage them. A great unknown is the extent to which human actions may alter the climate system over decades and centuries to come. In this case, widely varying assumptions alter the set, rate and extent of projected impacts (Kasemir et al. 2003; Banuri and Weyant 2001; Oppenheimer et al. 2008). The assessment of changes in components of the climatic system, including the prediction of impacts of GHG concentration on changes in climatic variables, radiative forcing, climate response, and impact sensitivity, remain highly uncertain as well (Dessai and Hulme 2004; University of Washington 2007). In light of such uncertainties, current attempts to better understand the implications of changing climate are based on assessing the outlook for future emissions (and emission reductions) of GHGs and aerosols, the resulting changes in climatic variables and their impacts on ecosystems and society, and finally the extent and effectiveness of adaptation actions to ameliorate impacts (O’Neil and Melnikov 2008).