Estimation of the magnitude of the HIV epidemic among homosexual men: Utilization of survey data in predictive models

A group of 709 randomly selected males aged 18–55 years living in the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, were questioned about sexual lifestyle and related behavior. A substantial proportion (10%) of these men appeared to be homo- or bisexual. Of these homo- and bisexual men, 16.5% were predicted to be HIV seropositive, using their behavioral information in logistic regression models derived from a second study among 506 homo- or bisexual volunteers who were questioned and tested for HIV antibodies as well.