The United States and the future of the Atlantic Alliance

In US history, the major milestones of US foreign policy often reflect deeper changes in the relationship between the United States and Europe—more specifically, they reflect changes in the transatlantic balance of power. The main long-term change in the United States’ global standing occurred during the Second World War: the transatlantic relationship, in the contemporary sense of the term, borne out of the institutional order linking the United States to many European countries, also emerged during this era, with the creation in 1949 of NATO—a military organization created to address the Soviet threat. This simple fact is worth remembering, because it explains why, despite the multiple internal crises it has faced throughout the four decades of its existence, the challenges NATO has faced since the end of the Cold War are more profound. Although NATO has had its ups and downs, it now faces a major crisis of unprecedented scope, as evidenced by the ways in which US President Donald Trump has characterized the organization as “obsolete.” The main challenge today relates to two enduring issues: the United States’ reluctance to comply with the constraints of an alliance such as NATO (in particular due to the provisions of Article 5); and divisions among European countries. In fact, both issues have been compounding each other since the end of the Cold War. In this context, the current crisis in the transatlantic relationship is of grave concern due to the fact that the US president is escalating it through his open skepticism of the value of NATO, as well as his rhetorical attacks aimed at the European Union and its Member States. Moreover, the crisis is concerning because it is evolving at a time when NATO and the European Union are both facing simultaneous institutional crises.