Modeling of biomass potential from agricultural land for energy utilization using high resolution spatial data with regard to food security scenarios

The paper presents results of modeling biomass potential under different scenarios of agricultural land utilization, which represent strategies of national food security. High resolution spatial data (GIS) including valuation of agricultural land, maps of actual utilization of agricultural land, yields of annual food crops and yield curves of perennial energy crops derived from empirical field data were used. The biomass sources used were residual straw from conventional agriculture crops (cereals, rape) and lignocellulose biomass from perennial energy crops (poplar, willow, Miscanthus, reed canary grass, hybrid sorrel, and other grasses). Biomass potential is modeled using original methods and algorithms that enabled the respecting of several its limitations (nature and soil protection, competition of crops for land, and use of straw for animal production). For the actual modeling—calculating the biomass potential for a given territory—a geographic information system is used (software TopoL©). Results of analyses confirmed that residual of biomass has good potential as source of energy in the Czech Republic (about 121PJ/year which equals to 6.8% of primary energy sources used in 2012), though the total number is lower than in previous assessments. The current biomass potential can be significantly increased with allocation of energy crops on less fertile land according to food security scenarios. Modeling also showed that biomass potential is non-linearly dependent on land allocated for energy crops. Soil and climate conditions of agricultural land allocated (available) for biomass production and its suitability for new energy crops play the decisive role in the definition of future biomass potential from agriculture land. Practical outputs of the modeling are yield maps of individual and mixed biomass sources as well as databases of biomass potential under different food security scenarios for regions of the Czech Republic, which can be used for planning of sustainable development of bioenergy.