Climate Change Impacts on Faidherbia albida (Delile) A. Chev. Distribution in Dry Lands of Ethiopia

Given recent and projected climate change, the study of adaptation and mitigation strategies which involve ecologically and economically important plant species is urgently needed. Faidherbia albida (Delile) A. Chev. is a species of both economic and ecological importance. We use 229 locational records gathered in the dry highlands of Ethiopia, nineteen environmental variables and the modelling program MaxEnt to model both the present and possible future distributions of this species. To model future distributions, we used two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5) for two time slices (2050 and 2070). Mean temperature of wettest quarter was the major factor which determines the species' potential distribution. Suitable habitat for F. albida under the current climatic conditions is the mid-highlands. However, its future distributions would shift upwards in elevation and will likely lead to some decrease in suitable areas, especially towards the end of the century. At the same time, however, other areas would become suitable for colonization, so that, overall, the species does not appear to face a significant reduction in distribution within our study region. Future studies should consider the possible effects of climate extremes, further environmental factors and of evolutionary adaptation of the species to new conditions.