Linking physiological, population and socio-economic assessments of climate-change impacts on fisheries

Climate change is postulated to influence marine resources worldwide with consequent ramifications for the management of commercially important fisheries. There is a need to understand the likely impacts of climate change affecting the biology of fisheries at each of the different levels: (a) individual (reproductive potential, larval settlement, spatial distribution); (b) population (carrying capacity, productivity, spatial distribution); (c) multi-species (replacement of one fishery by another) and (d) ecosystem (dependent predator species, shifts in community composition). When addressing these problems it is important to integrate information across a range of dimensions pertaining to the resource and stakeholders, using a combination of biological, economic and social research elements. This is necessary for a better understanding of the likely changes to catches and in turn the possible socio-economic implications. We assessed the impact and likelihood of a range of plausible climate impacts on a number of lobster life history parameters, using the Torres Strait tropical rock lobster Panulirus ornatus as a case study. The hypothesised high risk effects of climate change were implemented through modifications to the lobster stock assessment model. Projected catches and an input-output model of the Australian economy were used to determine the flow-on effects of climate-change impacts affecting this lobster fishery. We highlight the potential of this combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches as a pragmatic first step to exploring climate-change impacts on a fishery and summarise implications for management. Our results suggest that there may be positive as well as negative consequences. Our integrated methodology is a step towards linking the interrelation between different variables and fishery productivity, and quantifying the resultant socio-economic effects to fishers, their communities and national economies.