Uncertainty assessment of trophic flows in Hamilton Harbour: A linear inverse modelling analysis

Ecopath with Ecosim has been extensively used to examine ecosystem attributes and the effects of management actions. One of the main limitations in using Ecopath to credibly guide management decisions lies in the quality and quantity of the data used. Linear Inverse Modelling treats the problem of ecosystem characterization in a rigorous mathematical way in which the foodweb is described as a (linear) function of the flows and model parameters are (inversely) derived from observed data. In this study, our thesis is that Linear Inverse Modelling can be used as a complement to Ecopath applications to evaluate our confidence in typically reported ecosystem characterizations. Based on a simplified version of a previously published foodweb topology (Hossain et al., 2012), we demonstrate that there is considerable uncertainty associated with the predicted energy flows within the ecosystem of Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty related to external flows (e.g. respiratory and detrital flows) appea...