Prognosis of recurrent bacterial vaginosis based on longitudinal changes in abundance of Lactobacillus and specific species of Gardnerella.

Refractory responses to standard-of-care oral metronidazole among recurrent bacterial vaginosis (BV) patients is not rare, and recurrence within a year is common. A better understanding of the bacterial determinants of these outcomes is essential. In this study we ask whether changes in specific species of Gardnerella are associated with poor short or long term clinical outcomes, and if and how resurgence of Lactobacillus species affects these outcomes. We quantify Lactobacillus isolates as a proportion of total vaginal bacteria using the LbRC5 qPCR assay, and 5 prevalent species of Gardnerella using primers that target species-specific polymorphisms within the cpn60 gene. The study includes 43 BV patients: 18 refractory, 16 recurrent, and 11 remission patients, sampled daily for up to two weeks post-treatment; clinical outcomes were tracked for up to 9 months. Persistently high titers of Gardnerella Gsp07 were associated with refractory responses, and persistently low abundance of Gardnerella Gsp07 and G. swidsinskii / G. leopoldii were associated with remission. Lactobacillus species abundance rose in 4-14 days after initiation of treatment in most but not all recurrent and remission patients, although increases were more sustained among remission patients. The findings suggest that Gardnerella Gsp07 and G. swidsinskii / G. leopoldii are markers of poor clinical outcome or may directly or indirectly suppress recovery of Lactobacillus species, thereby interfering with clinical recovery. Therapies that target these strains may improve patient outcome.