A THEORETICAL PREDICTION OF WORK TRIPS IN THE MINNEAPOLIS- ST. PAUL AREA

THE TWIN CITIES AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY (TCATS) TESTED SEVERAL THEORETICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING WORK TRIP PATTERNS AGAINST THE FINDINGS OF ITS ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY. A COMPARISON IS PRESENTED OF THE WORK-TRIP PATTERN FOUND BY THE ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY (FTCATS) AND THE PATTERN PREDICTED BY A FIELD THEORY OF LAND USE AND THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE AS EXPRESSED BY A MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION DEVELOPED BY THE AUTHOR. THERE APPEAR TO BE NO DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE BASIC ASSUMPTIONS OF THE THEORY AND THE REALITY OF THE DATA FOR THE TWIN CITIES, OTHER THAN THAT OF THE APPARENTLY DIVIDED FIELD. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT BECAUSE THE THEORY DOES NOT DEPEND IN ANY WAY ON THE EXISTING PATTERN OF MOVEMENT, IF IT CAN BE ACCEPTED AS PREDICTING THE EXISTING PATTERN, IT CAN BE USED AS THE BASIS FOR PREDICTING FUTURE PATTERNS GIVEN THE FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF PLACES OF RESIDENCE AND OF EMPLOYMENT.