Metapopulation capacity with self-colonization: Finding the best patches in fragmented habitats

Habitat fragmentation continues to be a leading threat for our global future. Methods to quantify fragmentation of habitat landscapes, particularly for endangered species, would be especially useful in conservation planning. Using the principles of metapopulation theory, we updated and devised two methods for analyzing fragmented landscapes: metapopulation capacity and abandonment rate. Our version of metapopulation capacity includes a self-colonization component to counteract the issue metapopulation theory experiences with single large patches. We then tested these methods on satellite image range maps of endemic birds in the highland forests of northern Central America.The metapopulation capacity method proved to be a better measure in that it highlighted which patches would be the most successful habitat in the landscape, based on size and connectivity to surrounding patches, thus allowing for species persistence. Unexpectedly, the abandonment rate method proved useful in providing a way of measuring each individual patch’s support to the rest of the landscape system. This could then be used to rank the remaining patches in order of their greatest contribution. Finally, by using a historical satellite map that showed previously forested habitat in the now deforested landscape, we were able to generate optimal restoration sequences by ranking each 1 km squares’ potential contribution.