Estimating the Probability of Committing Traffic Infraction due to Mobile Use: Driving Simulator Study

Traffic accident is the ninth leading cause of death in all age groups worldwide. The are many factors contributing to the road traffic accidents. However, human factors account for approximately half of the traffic accidents. More specifically, driver distraction is one of the major concerns for transport safety and it may be caused by using hand-held or hands-free mobile phone which impairs driver’s inattention for a period of time that and consequently may result an accident. Driving simulators are a useful tool, mainly aimed at educating and researching knowledge and skills in driving. The main advantage is that the simulation occurs in controlled environments to assess driving behavior without exposing the driver to a real risk. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to analyze the consequences of mobile phone use while driving. As driving simulator is an effective tool to evaluate drivers’ performance without exposing them to a real risk, the present study aims to conduct a driving simulator study to realize how the use of social media applications, individual characteristics would contribute to the likelihood of aggressive driving. Forty simulations were done and 43,259 data records were collected from people aged between 20-28 in this experiment. The Bayesian network method has been used to develop a global probabilistic model. The results indicate that the use of social media applications while driving will likely increase the likelihood of committing traffic infraction. In addition, the novice male drivers will highly likely to commit traffic infraction compared to other driver groups.