A multivariate prognostic nomogram incorporating PSA kinetics in hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer (HRPC)

5058 Background: To develop a prognostic model and nomogram using baseline clinical variables to predict death among men with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). Methods: TAX 327 was a clinical trial that randomized 1,006 men with metastatic HRPC to receive 3-weekly or weekly docetaxel or mitoxantrone, each with prednisone. Of these, 635 men had baseline data that included PSA kinetics, with 518 mortality events recorded as of November 2006. We developed a multivariate Cox model and nomogram to predict survival at two, three, and five years. Results: Ten independent prognostic factors were identified in multivariate analysis and include: 1) presence of liver metastases (HR 1.64, p=0.02), 2) number of metastatic sites (HR 1.58 if =2 sites, p=0.001), 3) clinically significant pain at baseline (HR 1.46, p<0.0001), 4) Karnofsky Performance Status (HR 1.42 if =70, p=0.01), 5) type of progression at baseline (HR 1.40 for measurable disease progression and 1.28 for bone scan progression, p=0.00...