Tailoring Surveillance Colonoscopy in Patients with Advanced Adenomas

Abstract Background and Aims Patients with advanced colorectal adenomas (AA) are directed to undergo intensive surveillance. However, the benefit derived from surveillance may be outweighed by the risk of death from non-colorectal cancer (CRC) causes, leading to uncertainty on how best to individualize follow-up. The aim of this study was to derive a risk prediction model and risk index that estimates and stratifies the risk for non-colorectal cancer mortality (NCM) subsequent to diagnosis and removal of AA. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Veterans > 40 years who had colonoscopy for diagnostic or screening indications at 13 VAMCs between 2002 and 2009, and had one or more AAs. The primary outcome was non-CRC mortality (NCM) using a fixed follow-up time period of 5 years. Logistic regression using the lasso technique was used to identify factors independently associated with non-CRC mortality (NCM), and an index based on points from regression coefficients was constructed to estimate risk of 5-year NCM. Results We identified 2,943 Veterans with AA (mean age (SD) 63 (8.6) years, 98% male, 74% white), with an overall 5-year mortality of 16.7%, which was nearly all due to NCM (16.6%). Age, comorbidity burden, specific comorbid conditions, and hospitalization within the preceding year were independently associated with NCM. The risk prediction model had a goodness of fit (calibration) p-value of 0.41, and c-statistic (discrimination) of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76). Based on comparable 5-year risks of NCM, the scores comprised 3 risk categories: low (score of 0-1), intermediate (score of 2-4) and high (score of ≥ 5), in which NCM occurred in 6.5%, 14.1%, and 33.2%, respectively. Conclusions We derived a risk prediction model that identifies Veterans at high risk of NCM within 5 years, and who are thus unlikely to benefit from further surveillance.