MaxEnt prediction for potential risk of mango wilt caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata Ellis and Halst under different climate change scenarios in India

Wilt of mango caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata has become a great threat to mango production in Bangladesh, Brazil, Oman, Pakistan, Spain and very recently in India also. In the present study potential distribution of mango wilt in India was predicted under different climate change scenarios by ecological niche modeling by MaxEnt. Study revealed that cutting across the different scenarios precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, isothermality were the significant factors in determining the disease distribution. Highest suitability areas for the disease occurrence under current scenario was predicted in southern parts of Jammu and Kashmir, southern Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, western and central Uttar Pradesh, western part of Bihar, western part of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Under future climate scenarios in 2050 highest suitability areas were predicted in parts of southern Jammu and Kashmir and western Bihar; whereas in 2070 scenario the highest suitability of disease occurrence was predicted in Uttar Pradesh, Jammu Kashmir, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. This study provides important information on the risk of C. fimbriata wilt using a MaxEnt model in India. The results can be utilized in strategic planning to prevent further spread of disease.