Probability Assessment of Geological Risks for the Development of Exploration Strategy

Summary In this abstract we consider the full cycle of geologacal and economical assessments of hydrocarbon exploration prospects needed for the development of correct exploration strategy. This assessment includes several stages: evaluation of probability of geological success and analysis of economic efficiency of geological exploration project. Different cases are considered — evaluation of single prospects and evaluation of complicared plays having several interdependent prospects charaterized of shared geological factors. On final stage of economi-geological evaluation EMV (expected monetary value) which takes into account both probability of geological success and indicators of economic efficiency is analized. It is shown that depending on the work strategy the balance of the cost and expected value can lead to substantially different results.