Analysis on complex uncertainty for the run risk of ill reservoir.

【Objective】 Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of ill reservoir,a complex uncertainty analysis method of grey-stochastic risk evaluation was put forward.【Method】 By simplifying the complicated uncertainty relationships in the run of ill reservoir to a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty,the evaluation method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up for ill reservoir risk analysis.According to ascertaining the functional function,the grey-stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability.Finally,the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate the run risk of ill reservoir.【Result】 The risk probability obtained by the grey-stochastic risk evaluation fell in a grey space,which satisfactorily reflected the uncertainty of reservoir run risk.【Conclusion】 Project instance analysis shows that the complex uncertainty analysis method proposed can satisfactorily evaluate the run risk of ill reservoir.