ENERGY SCENARIOS AND THE ROLE OF MODELLING

This paper canvasses the role of systems modelling in developing scenarios for the purpose of forecasting energy demand and supply levels under a variety of conditions. Approaches to scenario development are described and a number of existing forecasts of energy markets are noted. Key scenario determinants are covered and an examination made of possible Australian scenarios utilising the MARKAL systems analysis model. The paper suggests a number of matters for consideration including the provision of support for the development of national scenarios of energy supply and demand to the year 2000.