Exploring farmers’ perceptions about their depleting groundwater resources using path analysis: implications for groundwater overdraft and income diversification

Iran is among the world’s top five groundwater exploiters and, similar to many countries in the world, aquifers in Iran have been rapidly depleted over the past decades primarily as a result of groundwater use by farmers. This research was conducted to explore whether the perceptions of pistachio growers in Rafsanjan Plain, Iran (a global center for pistachio production), on the depleting groundwater resources have led to the conservation of the resources and/or income diversification. In addition, the association between these perceptions and factors representing knowledge of growers was examined. To this end, two path models were developed and tested using path analysis and logistic regression. The results indicate that growers who had more pessimistic perceptions of the groundwater resources in Rafsanjan were more likely to increase groundwater extraction; however, these growers were also more likely to seek external employment (income diversification). The final path models suggest attitudes toward groundwater conservation were the most important determinants of pumping behavior, while perceptions of the state of the groundwater were the most important determinants of income diversification. Whether Iranian policies to increase awareness of falling water tables could succeed in securing water conservation would depend on the ‘balance’ of these two forces—an increase in pumping with increased pessimism or a potential decrease in pumping through income diversification. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications of the results for interventions aimed at changing not only the groundwater users’ decisions about groundwater use, but also their decisions about income diversification.