2016年长江洪水遭遇分析 Flood Encounter Analysis of Yangtze River in 2016

本文利用数理统计方法，根据洪峰、洪量遭遇的时间、量级统计特征，分析2016年长江干支流洪水实况的遭遇情况。同时考虑梯级水库群调节作用，还原了长江流域干支流控制站的水位、流量过程，分析比较还原后的天然长江洪水遭遇情况。结果表明2016年长江流域主要为中下游洪水遭遇，长江流域梯级水库群的联合调洪对于减轻长江流域洪水遭遇起到了积极作用。 The encounter of floods in the main stream and tributaries of Yangtze River is studied by the statistic method, from the aspects of encounter time of the peak discharge and flood volume, and magnitude of the floods. Considering the operation effect the cascade reservoirs, the natural flow and water level of the key stations in the main stream and tributaries of Yangtze River are derived, to do the natural flood encounter analysis and comparison. The results show that the flood encounter mainly happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze this year, and the joint operation of the cascade reservoirs played a positive role in relieving the flood encounter in Yangtze River.