PAVEMENT DETERIORATION MODELLING IN LONG TERM PERFORMANCE BASED CONTRACTS: HOW FAR DOES IT MITIGATE THE RISK FOR CLIENT AND CONTRACTOR?

The paper addresses a number of issues based on New Zealand experience: the role of pavement modeling in the overall tender process; the translation of organizational objectives into technical analyses; issues of data quality and how they can be managed; the degree to which calibration can be achieved; and the need for sensitivity testing to highlight the level of confidence in the outputs. Recommendations are made on where further work is required in the future in order to improve the applicability of pavement modeling techniques to the performance based contracting process. The authors have joint experience as both advisers to tenderers and clients for such technical analyses. Based on this experience, the key risks that are identified by both clients and contractors are discussed, and conclusions are given on how pavement modeling can assist with risk mitigation. The paper will therefore be of interest to client managers, who will wish to understand the level of risk that tenderers are accepting in predicting future performance. The paper will also be of benefit to potential tenderers, in clarifying the key areas of concern from a client perspective that should be considered during the tendering process.