Calibration of Load and Resistance Factors for Breakwater Foundations under the Earthquake Loading

This study investigates the system stability of breakwater foundations subjected to earthquakes from a probabilistic point of view. A fully probabilistic approach, i.e., a combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and Bishop’s simplified method, has been developed to evaluate the system failure probability of foundation damage, one of the prevailing failures encountered during earthquakes. Twelve sections of perforated caisson breakwaters located around Korea were chosen as case studies. First, the reliability analysis was performed for all the breakwaters at existing conditions; then, the calibration process involving the estimation of load and resistance factors was conducted for 12 breakwaters at three levels of the target reliability index. As the performance function, used in the stability analysis of breakwater foundations, is defined based on an implicit shape with a high-dimensional space of variables, the calibration process of load and resistance factors becomes cumbersome and complicated. Therefore, this study has proposed a sensitivity analysis to be implemented prior to the calibration process to elicit the effects of variables on the stability of each breakwater, which, thereafter, effectively directs the calibration process. The results of this study indicate that the failures in the foundation of breakwaters frequently occur in different modes. Therefore, the failure probability should be estimated considering all possible failure modes of the foundation. The sensitivity results elucidate that the soil strength parameters are the dominant variables, contributing to the stability of foundations, whereas the seismic coefficient presents the negative effect, causing the insecurity of breakwaters. In particular, the deadweights, though directly contributing to the seismic forces, show a small effect on the stability of foundations. The calibration shows that the load factors slightly vary with an increase in the target reliability index and set 1.10 for three safety levels. In contrast, the resistance factor exhibits an inverse relationship with the specified reliability index. Especially when the load factor equals 1.10, the resistance factors are 0.90, 0.85, and 0.80, corresponding to the reliability index of 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0, respectively. Eventually, it is proved that the sensitivity analysis prior to the calibration process makes the procedure more efficient. Accordingly, the iteration of simulation execution is diminished, and the convergence is quickly accomplished.