Ley de Zipf/Mandelbrot y teoría de la probabilidad aplicadas a la caracterización de reacciones adversas a medicamentos en adultos mayores

Abstract Introduction. Zipf/Mandelbrot Law establishes a fractal auto-organization of phenomena such as language, the B and T immune repertoire and the fetal cardiac behavior, among other possible applications. Objective. The application of the probability theory has allowed the prediction of the cardiac behavior, epidemics and the union of peptides in molecular biology. Materials and methods. The adverse reactions rate to medications (ARM) and problems related to medications (PRM) in adults above 44 years of age in Bogota, Colombia, from January to December, 2012, were analyzed by means of the Zipf- Mandelbrot law, separating the ages by ratios every 5 years. Additionally, the probability of the number of reports of the 19 pharmacological groups with higher ARM and PRM were assessed. Results. The ARM and PRM rates have a fractal statistic behavior with fractal dimension of 0,983 and a R2 of 0,8618. The probability of the pharmacological groups varied between 0,0383 for anticonvulsants and lipid-lowering medications and 0,2743 for anti-bacterial ones. The probabilities of the pharmacological groups show differences of 10 in magnitude orders in regard to the maximum probability. Conclusion. The incidence rate of RAM and PRM is characterized by Zipf/Mandelbrot law; It was found a not equiprobable behavior of the distribution of reports by pharmacological groups, which could show useful trends in pharmacological surveillance.