Visual rating of posterior atrophy as a marker of progression to dementia in mild cognitive impairment patients

Although medial temporal atrophy (MTA) is a useful imaging marker of the progression to dementia in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), substantial numbers of MCI patients without MTA still progress to dementia.We investigated whether visual ratings of posterior atrophy (PA) on magnetic resonance imaging show independent predictive value for the progression to dementia in MCI patients.This was a retrospective cohort study of elderly patients who visited Seoul National University Bundang Hospital between 2004 and 2012. A total of 148 patients who were initially diagnosed with MCI were followed for up to 3 years (median 22 months) to determine whether they progressed to dementia. We used 4-point and 5-point visual rating scales to assess PA and MTA, respectively. PA and MTA scores were dichotomized into normal (no atrophy) or abnormal (atrophy) in each patient. We performed a Cox regression analysis to examine the hazard ratios (HRs) of PA and MTA for the progression to dementia with adjustment for age, APOEɛ4 allele status, and baseline Mini-Mental State Examination score.Among the study population, 47 patients progressed to dementia. Visual assessment of the MRI scans revealed that 67 patients (45.3%) showed PA, whereas 85 patients (57.3%) showed MTA. The HRs with 95% confidence intervals for PA and MTA were 2.516 (1.244-5.091) and 4.238 (1.680-10.687), respectively. The predictive values of visually assessed PA and MTA remained significant, independent of the covariates.Visual assessment of PA has independent predictive value for progression to dementia in MCI patients.