Elvis Rabuske Hendges I* Rudiney Soares Pereira II Juliano Andres I Dinâmica das áreas de floresta nativa no Rio Grande do Sul no período de 1988 a 2020

ABSTRACT Land use patterns and the potential misuse of ourplanet’s natural resources have recently called the attention ofan increasing worldwide number of studies in the area ofscenario simulation. In this context, the present study aims atsimulating the native forest scenario of the southern state ofRio Grande do Sul, Brazil, for the 2020, by locating andquantifying in a map the evolution of forest in this state. Landuse patterns were classified based on satellite images from theyears 1988, 1998 and 2007. The forest evolution map wascross-checked with several thematic maps of physical andhuman aspects and defined the Markov transition matrix andthe evidence weights, both of which are requirements for thecalibration of the stochastic model. The simulation of RioGrande do Sul’s forest landscape for the year 2020 showed anincrease of the native forest in almost all regions of the state,covering an area of more than 5,113km 2 . Key words: scenario simulation, GIS, remote sensing. INTRODUCAO