Significant Route Identification using Daily 24-hour Traffic Flows

Traffic flow estimates play a key role in traffic network management and planning of transportation networks. Commonly it is the average daily traffic (ADT) flow for different road segments that constitute the data. This paper shows how an advanced and detailed analysis based on hourly flow measurements over the day can contribute to a deeper understanding of how hourly flows together reflect the vehicles’ routes. The proposed method identifies the shortest travel time paths between all possible origins and destinations in a transportation network, and thereafter it identifies the most significant routes in the network by performing statistical tests. For this purpose, the paper presents a mathematical model, a vehicle simulator based on this model, and a statistical framework that is able to find the most probable underlying routes. The paper contains a real test scenario based on 24-hour traffic flows (hour by hour) to demonstrate the applicability of the method.