Food Insecurity and Global Warming: A Time-Sensitive Issue - eScholarship

FOOD INSECURITY AND GLOBAL WARMING: A TIME SENSITIVE ISSUE BY NAOMI B. SALES EXAMINATION OF INCREASING GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH TIME. F ood insecurity is rarely reported as a result of climate change. Oftentimes, food security is immediately related to state and governmental malfunction and poverty. Research shows that the increase in global mean temperature and extreme weather events influences biogeographic range shift that results in the movement of crops poleward. It also shows that there is a positive correlation between the alter- ation of latitudinal range of crops and pest distribution. The biogeographic range shift of crops can lead to trait shift and increase in biogeographic range of pests that eventually enable them to thrive in a wide range of environmental conditions. The proliferation of pests threatens food security by decreasing food production and food accessibility accordingly. These variables are vital in understanding the biological implications of climate change and understanding other factors of food insecurity. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 795 mil- lion people of the 7.3 billion people in the world were suffering from chronic under- nourishment in 2014-2016. Almost all the hungry people, 780 million, live in devel- oping countries, representing one in eight of the population of developing countries. 1 Global food security is threatened by the spread of pests and disease pathogens and climate change plays a significant role in the biological aspect of this problem. Research shows that the top four crops— maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that cur- rently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories are increasing at a rate of 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% respectively. However, this increase in production is not enough to reach the required rate of 2.4% yield to meet the demands of increasing population in the year 2050. 2 In relation to that, most of the people who are at risk and are currently affected by food insecurity are living in developing countries. 3 These countries also have the lowest income and are the hardest hit by climate change. HUMAN INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS OCCURRING FROM THE EMISSIONS OF GREEN- HOUSE GASES, PRIMARILY FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THE RE- SULTING CLIMATE CHANGE POSES RISKS FOR HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS. The overall effect is increased global mean temperature, which has already risen, by roughly 0.13 °C per decade since the 1950s, resulting in an overall rise of just under 1 °C today, in comparison to pre-in- dustrial norms. Future emissions, even under best-case scenarios, are predicted to add 1°C in the next three decades. Along with mean temperature changes, there has been an increase in the occurrence of warm temperature extremes and a simultaneous reduction in cold extremes. 4 Climate change also includes stronger and more frequent extreme weather events and changes in the lengths of growing season of crops. It is also shown to induce biologi- cal changes in weeds and pests. The inflation of food prices and decrease in food production can be attributed to many different factors, but the strongest correla- tions point to climate change. Increasing temperature can induce stress to crops that can make it more favorable for pests and weeds to thrive. Climate change can cause biogeographic range shifts to plants in order to adapt and compensate for long summers and early wintertime—both of which are related to food production. Bio- geographic range shift is the expansion or contraction of a species’ area through the movement or disappearance of individuals. Climate change can cause biogeographic range shifts by inducing interspecific inter- actions, short-term climate extremes, and FALL 2016 | Berkeley Scientific Journal