Different Responses in Geographic Range Shifts and Increase of Niche Overlap in Future Climate Scenario of the Subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier

Climate change is suggested to be one of the possible drivers of decline in pollinators. In this paper, we applied an ecological niche model to modeling distributional responses in face of climate changes for the subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier. This species is divided into two subspecies based on difference in the yellow tergal stripes, which are continuous in M. q. quadrifasciata and interrupted in M. q. anthidioides. The geographic distribution of each subspecies is also distinct. M. q. quadrifasciata is found in colder regions in the Southern states of Brazil, whereas M. q. anthidioides is found in habitats with higher temperatures, suggesting that ecological features, such as adaption to distinct climatic conditions may take place. Thus, the possibility of having diff erent responses in geographic range shifts to future climate scenario would be expected. This study aimed to investigate the eff ects of climate changes on the distribution of the two M. quadrifasciata subspecies in Brazil, using an ecological niche model by the MaxEnt algorithm. Our results indicate that the subspecies showed clear diff erences in geographic shift patterns and increased climate niche overlap in the future scenarios. M. q. anthidioides will have the potential for an increase of suitable climatic conditinos in the Atlantic Forest, and towards the Pampa biome, while M. q. quadrifasciata will suffer a reduction of adequate habitats in almost all of its current geographic distribution. Given the potential adverse eff ects of climate changes for this subspecies, conservation actions are urgently needed to avoid that it goes extinct.