Early Microstructure Changes of White Matter Fiber Bundles in Patients with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment Predicts Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease.

Background Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is the transitional stage between normal aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Some aMCI patients will progress into AD eventually, whereas others will not. If the trajectory of aMCI can be predicted, it would enable early diagnosis and early therapy of AD. Objective To explore the development trajectory of aMCI patients, we used diffusion tensor imaging to analyze the white matter microstructure changes of patients with different trajectories of aMCI. Methods We included three groups of subjects:1) aMCI patients who convert to AD (MCI-P); 2) aMCI patients who remain in MCI status (MCI-S); 3) normal controls (NC). We analyzed the fractional anisotropy and mean diffusion rate of brain regions, and we adopted logistic binomial regression model to predicate the development trajectory of aMCI. Results The fraction anisotropy value is significantly reduced, the mean diffusivity value is significantly increased in the two aMCI patient groups, and the MCI-P patients presented greater changes. Significant changes are mainly located in the cingulum, fornix, hippocampus, and uncinate fasciculus. These changed brain regions significantly correlated with the patient's Mini-Mental State Examination scores. Conclusion The study predicted the disease trajectory of different types of aMCI patients based on the characteristic values of the above-mentioned brain regions. The prediction accuracy rate can reach 90.2%, and the microstructure characteristics of the right cingulate band and the right hippocampus may have potential clinical application value to predict the disease trajectory.