Vulnerabilidade socioambiental e de saúde da população dos municípios mineiros aos impactos das mudanças climáticas

The vulnerability to climate change is a concept still under construction and relates to the predisposition to be adversely affected by its impacts, including the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human populations. The climate change refers to alterations in the climate conditions which can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties and that persist for a prolonged period, typically of decades or centuries. Currently, these changes have been projected by new climate scenarios named Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), which are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The RCP’s scenarios used in the present study are the 4.5 and 8.5. The RCP 4.5 represents a scenario where the greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized while the RCP 8.5, a scenario in which there is a critical increase of the emissions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the socioenvironmental and health vulnerability of the population of the municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais to the impacts of climate change, in order to contribute to its use as a state and municipal management tool toward adaptation process. It was developed by the construction of an Index of Human Vulnerability (IHV) which considers information regarding the environment, climate, demography, social, and health conditions of the population of all the municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais. The IHV results related to the RCP 4.5 showed a large group of vulnerable municipalities in regions located further South in the state. Clusters of more vulnerable municipalities in the Southeastern regions were also observed. These municipalities constitute the developing regions of Mata, Metropolitano, Oeste, Sudoeste e Sul. Although these territories have been ranked as the less vulnerable in the General Vulnerability Index (GVI), which excludes the climate scenarios, the anomalies projection showed a quite intense alteration to these regions, both to the RCP 4.5 and the 8.5 scenarios. Regarding IHV results of the RCP 8.5 scenario, it was observed a more homogenous distribution of the most vulnerable municipalities with no clear tendency, except for a small group of vulnerable territories in the Southeastern, Southwest and Triangle regions. The present vulnerability, represented by the GVI, was higher in the Northern and Northeastern municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais. However, based on the aggregation of the social, environmental, and epidemiological aspects to the climate scenarios, the IHV calculated for the both scenarios showed a higher vulnerability of the human population in the Southwest and Southeastern portions of the state. Even presenting better sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices, these regions presented high exposure indices, are densely populated, and strongly dependent on agriculture. Thereby, the climate anomalies have the potential to impact the livelihoods and economies of these areas.