Accuracy of indirect estimates of renal function in advanced chronic renal failure patients

: Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula are indirect estimates of renal function which have been widely accepted, though their accuracies have been scarcely validated in advanced chronic renal failure. The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy (bias and precision) of these formulas in advanced CRF patients. The study group consisted of 99 unselected patients (62 +/- 15 years, 59 females) with advanced CRF. The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was measured by Tc(99m) DTPA. Simultaneously, estimates of GFR by CG corrected for 1.73 m2 and MDRD (formula 7) were calculated. Agreement was evaluated graphically, bias was assessed by mean and median difference, and precision by median absolute differences and Bland-Altman plots. Mean GFR by DTPA, CG and MDRD were: 16.24 +/- 4.38 and 16.77 +/- 4.65 and 13.58 +/- 4.27 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively. MDRD equation significantly underestimated GFR-DTPA (p = 0.0001). Both CG and MDRD correlated significantly with GFR-DTPA (R = 0.53 and R = 0.62, respectively). CG formula performed better than the MDRD equation with respect to bias (0.30 vs -3.24 ml/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.0001), and precision (0.58 vs. -3.11 ml/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.0001). By multiple linear regression, the best determinants of the error of the estimation by CC formula were: serum creatinine (beta = -0.58; p < 0.0001), age (beta = -0.62; p < 0.0001), and body mass index (beta = 0.26, p = 0.004), and by MDRD formula were: serum creatinine (beta = -0.38; p < 0.0001), and body mass index (beta = -0.20, p = 0.03). In conclusion, in unselected patients with advanced chronic renal failure, estimates by CC formula were more accurate than those obtained by MDRD formula. Serum creatinine was the main source of error of the estimation of GFR by both formulas, though demographic and anthropometric characteristics influenced as well on their accuracies.