INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections: facing the challenge of the statistical measure of population

The first years of the 21st century are representin g a period of exceptional relevance for Spain demog raphic evolution and thus for the demographic statistics. They are b eing a burning issue of the academic, social and po litical debate, focused on the pressing interest in knowing the vol ume and structure of the resident population and it s most foreseeable evolution, at least, in the near future. Such exceptionality is deeply determined by the ext raordinary intensity of the foreign immigration flu x since the end of the nineties, which has greatly altered its demogra phic structure and behaviours. It has also become S pain in one of the more significant cases of socio-demographic transfo rmation over the Old World, getting a place between the countries with higher percentage of foreign resident populati on, lightly exceeded by USA, and behind Canada and Australia. Therefore, this new context has raised a crucial ch allenge over the INE work plans: the traditional ap proach to the statistical measures of population trough classics censuses and occasional long term population projec tions should be replaced by a more modern strategy of continue monitoring of demographic changes which results could b e integrated in updated current population estimates and demogra phic projections. Consequently, new INE action plan are based on: • Giving the best statistical approach to the current resident population in every moment (monthly serie s): Population Now Cast. • Making continuous forecast of the future demographic and population evolution: Short Term Population Projections (annually updated) and Long Term Population Projections (updated every three years). We can label Spain Population Now Cast as a synthesis statistic that integrates results from different primary sources of information in order to get consistent estimates of the resident population in Spain and its regions, at every present moment. Population Now Cast uses the most updated information about the recent demographic evolution ( Monthly Demographic Now Cast) and its results are broken down by basic demographic characteristics (sex, gener ation, age and citizenship). For all these reasons, we could asser t that Population Now Cast represents over the demo graphy field of official statistics a similar role as National Acco unts over economics statistics: a systematic and de tailed representation in an integrated and consistent system of stocks an d flux of the resident population as a whole. In addition, taking Population Now Cast for January 1 st of the current year as starting point, INE produce s: • Short Term Population Projections, for the followin g ten years, according to the foreseeable hypothesi s of demographic events evolution. It lets users follow the current demographic progress in Spain, its regi ons and provinces, trough permanent updated results to the last available information. INE provides it since 2 008 and its results are disseminated in an annual basis. • Long Term Population Projections of Spain resident population, for forty years, as simulation exercise about future population, under the hypothesis of continui ty in recent demographic trends. It will be carried out every three years.