Implications of environmental trajectories for Limits of Acceptable Change: a case study of the Riverland Ramsar site, South Australia

The Riverland Ramsar site in south-eastern Australia has Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) derived on the basis of hydrological regimes and vegetation requirements. This study evaluated LAC for the site against trajectories of environmental change including increasing river regulation and changing climate. The study identified a high likelihood of exceedances of the LAC from changed hydrologic regime and also from changing climate, with the combined influences increasing the likelihood of breaches. Regional climatic variations in the past call into question the concept of baseline conditions for this site and elsewhere, and suggest that management plans based on ecological variation around a point in time will be insufficient. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation enhancement, and regular reviews of site condition and regional significance are suggested components for future management of Ramsar sites.