Disaggregating Customer-level Behind-the-Meter PV Generation Using Smart Meter Data.

Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM) and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are unknown to utilities. Separating native demand and solar generation from net demand is critical for improving grid-edge observability. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for disaggregating customer-level BTM PV generation using low-resolution but widely available smart meter data. The proposed approach exploits the high correlation between monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands. First, a joint probability density function (PDF) of monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands is constructed for customers without PVs, using Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM). Deviation from the constructed PDF is leveraged to probabilistically assess the monthly solar generation of customers with PVs. Then, to identify hourly BTM solar generation for these customers, their estimated monthly solar generation is decomposed into an hourly timescale; to do this, we have proposed a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based technique that takes advantage of hourly typical solar exemplars. Unlike previous disaggregation methods, our approach does not require native demand exemplars or knowledge of PV model parameters, which makes it robust against volatility of customers' load and enables highly-accurate disaggregation. The proposed approach has been verified using real smart meter data.