Smokers’ behavioral intentions in response to a low-nicotine cigarette policy

Abstract Introduction Evidence suggests that reducing the nicotine concentration in cigarettes to sub-addictive levels would reduce use. Until a low-nicotine cigarette policy is enacted, population-level effects are unknown. This study examines the behavioral intentions of current U.S. tobacco users if a low-nicotine policy were implemented. Methods Data were drawn from a nationally representative probability-based panel and opt-in panel. Weighted logistic regressions examined likelihood to (1) smoke lower-nicotine cigarettes, (2) quit using tobacco, (3) use e-cigarettes, (4) illegally buy high-nicotine cigarettes, and (5) smoke cigars, cigarillos, or little cigars (CLCCs) among smokers, controlling for demographics, tobacco products used, dependence, and intentions to quit cigarettes. Latent class analyses (LCA) characterized patterns of behavioral intentions. Results If a low-nicotine policy were implemented, most participants indicated a likelihood to smoke low-nicotine cigarettes (78.4%) or quit tobacco (61.9%), followed by use e-cigarettes (46.5%). Individuals with greater dependence had greater odds of intending to smoke low-nicotine cigarettes, use e-cigarettes, and illegally buy high-nicotine cigarettes. Current e-cigarette or CLCCs users had higher odds of intending to use these products. LCA revealed that individuals would 1) use low-nicotine cigarettes with low intentions to use other tobacco products or 2) use multiple tobacco products, including low-nicotine cigarettes. Conclusions A reduced nicotine standard for all combustible tobacco products is needed given that many tobacco users would likely intend to continue to use tobacco products. Differences in intentions by tobacco use and demographic characteristics indicate a need for additional cessation support and education around the harms of continued use of combustible tobacco.