Predicting the magnitude and spatial distribution of potentially exposed populations during IND or RDD terrorism incidents

ABSTRACT Rapid delineation of the population potentially at risk from terrorist incidents involving an Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) or Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD) is necessary for effective medical response and incident management as part of the recovery process. The spatial interaction modeling framework presented estimates population magnitude and distribution at a geographical scale relevant for accurately estimating risk isopleths moving away from the detonation point for a 10KT IND and a 3.7 × 1013 Bq 241Am RDD. The methodology is applied to a set of illustrative release scenarios with varying meteorological parameters for wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric stability. The analytical framework allocates population data for a representative urban area (≈1M people; 40 × 40 km area) within potential effects zones on a spatial basis for daytime and nighttime release scenarios.