Nomograms Predicting Response and Survival of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Anti-PD-1 Therapy.

Purpose/Objective(s) In recent years, anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody has played an increasingly critical role in the treatment of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), but there is still a lack of credible biomarkers to predict the efficacy of anti-PD-1 therapy. Our study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the response and survival of patients with ECSS treated with anti-PD-1. Materials/Methods A total of 236 patients who received anti-PD-1 therapy between January 2019 and September 2020 were collected in the study retrospectively. Absolute neutrophil count (ANC), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), total lymphocyte count, platelet count (PLT), monocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and serum albumin level at baseline were used to calculate the NLR (ANC/ALC), PLR (PLT/ALC), LMR (ALC/monocyte count), and PNI (10×serum albumin value, g/dL+0.005×total lymphocyte count/mm3). The early response was assessed by the RECIST version 1.1 criteria. Logistic and Cox models were used to identify factors associated with early response and survival, respectively. Nomograms were developed based on significant factors and evaluated by Concordance-index (C-index) and calibration curve. The 1,000 bootstrap samples and calibration curves were used to validate the discrimination of the nomogram. Results In multivariate logistic regression analysis, NLR Conclusion The nomogram established by combining the clinical characteristics and peripheral blood markers of patients could effectively predict the prognosis of patients with ESCC treated with anti-PD-1 therapy.