The Breakout of China-India Strategic Rivalry in Asia and the Indian Ocean

Submerged tensions between India and China have pushed to the surface, revealing a deep and wide strategic rivalry over several security-related issues in the Asia-Pacific area. The U.S.-India nuclear deal and regular joint naval exercises informed Beijing's assessment that U.S.-India friendship was aimed at containing China's rise. China's more aggressive claims to the disputed northern border--a new challenge to India's sovereignty over Kashmir--and the entry of Chinese troops and construction workers in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region escalated the conflict. India's reassessment of China's intentions led the Indian military to adopt a two-front war doctrine against potential simultaneous attacks by Pakistan and China. China's rivalry with India in the Indian Ocean area is also displacing New Delhi's influence in neighboring countries. As China's growing strength creates uneasiness in the region, India's balancing role is welcome within ASEAN. Its naval presence facilitates comprehensive cooperation with other countries having tense relations with China, most notably Japan. India's efforts to outflank China's encirclement were boosted after Beijing unexpectedly challenged U.S. naval supremacy in the South China Sea and the Pacific. The Obama Administration reasserted the big picture strategic vision of U.S.-India partnership first advanced by the nuclear deal. Rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean, now expanded to China and the United States in the Pacific, is solidifying an informal coalition of democracies in the vast Asia-Pacific area. ********** The past few years have seen a dangerous rise in mutual suspicion between India and China, propelling bilateral relations toward a deep and wide strategic rivalry. This article examines the security issues that have led to the open breakout of competition between India and China long implicit in their geographical proximity and their great power ambitions in neighboring areas and the Indian Ocean. New Delhi's perspective of Chinese policies that aim at the strategic encirclement of India, as well as Beijing's outlook on India's attempt to limit China's influence in South and Southeast Asia and its power projection into the Indian Ocean, has overridden their formulaic statements of shared interests as partners in strengthening a multipolar world. The new reality of rivalry is evident from the following security issues: (1) the escalation of the Sino-Indian border dispute; (2) the deepening of the strategic alliance between China and Pakistan; (3) China-India rivalry in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean; and (4) India's "Look East" policy to promote bilateral ties with other countries that have tense relations with China in the region, not least, the United States. China's long-standing dismissive attitude toward India's capabilities and great power ambitions was shaken when the Bush Administration began protracted negotiations with India in 2005 for entering into a long-term strategic partnership, shortly after their defense ministers signed the bilateral New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship. (1) The U.S.-India nuclear deal, approved by Washington and New Delhi in 2008, carved out an exception for India from American law prohibiting commerce in civil nuclear energy with a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The last minute push of the Bush Administration to gain an unconditional exemption for nuclear commerce with India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) exacerbated China's suspicions that closer U.S.-India friendship was aimed at containing China's rise. Between 2002 and 2010, India and the United States carried out fifty joint military exercises. Since 2008, India has signed arms deals with the United States worth $8.2 billion. (2) China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs pressed India for an explanation, even suggesting that an Asian NATO was in the offing. This exaggerated response coincided with a much more aggressive Chinese claim to the disputed northeast border along the McMahon Line on the Himalayan frontier and the Line of Actual Control (LAC). …