Explaining Autonomy Success and Failure: An Identity-Based Approach

This chapter deals with the central explanandum of the study and finds empirical evidence for the high variance in consolidation outcomes of post-conflict autonomy arrangements. To explain this variance, the chapter builds on Social Identity Theory and develops two multi-causal models, which explain autonomy consolidation as a successful process of ethnic recognition that proceeds via elite acceptance for institutional reforms, elite cooperation efforts, and rapprochement at the societal level. Since the initiation and maintenance of this process is obviously highly context dependent, the chapter identifies a number of potentially necessary conditions in a second step. From an identity-theoretical point of view, a combination of a peaceful and non-secessionist conflict strategy, a high scope of self-rule, weak social and economic inequalities, democracy, and a high degree of internationalization is favorable for post-conflict autonomy consolidation, whereas the absence of these conditions increases the chances of autonomy failure and continued separatist violence.