A land-indicator-based optimization model with trading mechanism in wetland ecosystem under uncertainty

Abstract In this study, a developed fuzzy-stochastic method with Hurwicz criterion (FSH) is proposed for planning land utilization in a wetland ecosystem under uncertainty. FSH can not only deal with natural stochastic uncertainties represented as random variables (such as water flow), but also handle subjective impressions expressed as fuzzy sets (such as economic data), even it can reflect the compromise of decision makers’ risk preferences in decision-making processes based on Hurwicz criterion. The proposed method can be applied to a practical land utilization management. Rational land utilization plan (including withdrawing reclamation and wetland recovering (WRWR)) is advocated to relive such contradictions artificially, where WRWR can improve ecological function, leading more intangible ecological benefits to human activities. Meanwhile, trading-oriented mechanism is introduced to increase the economic productivity of land plan. Based on various conjunctive goals of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability, results of ecological effects of wetland ecosystem, land utilization patterns, pollution-mitigation schemes, trading mechanisms and system benefits under varied scenarios are obtained and analyzed. The results indicate that land-indicator-based optimization with trading-oriented mechanism can improve the efficiency of land utilization plan in the mass to satisfy regional water resource/environmental load. Meanwhile, tradeoffs between economic benefit and system-failure risk under optimistic/pessimistic option would support generating a robust plan associated with risk control for land utilization in wetland ecosystem under uncertainties. These detections can avail local policymakers to adjust existing land utilization plan with more efficient and sustainable manners, with aim to harmonize economic development and environmental protection in wetland ecosystem.